Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
